Weather Wednesday: NWS Winter 2026-2027 Outlook

StormTRACKER By Robert Daley Today at 8:00 PM Listen Comments Share Share this article News Reporting News Reporting Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. The Trust Project What is this? GRAND FORKS, ND — After last year’s weak La Niña pattern, we’re heading into this winter with the polar opposite: a strong El Niño. And as meteorologist Blake Rafferty with the National Weather Service office in Grand Forks explains, that climate pattern favors different trends depending on where you live. ADVERTISEMENT “Some parts of the country, they get more snow and rain compared to usual. Places that’d be favored for this would be California, Colorado. Other locations, it's a little more hit and miss. The jet stream kind of splits around them, such as the Northern Rockies," Rafferty said. For us, El Niño looks to bring milder than average temperatures overall. But for precipitation? “We're in a more gray area here in the Northern Plains, where precipitation isn't really favored to be above or below in an El Niño,” Rafferty continued. The type of precipitation we see, however, can be skewed in an El Niño winter. “That could mean when we have precipitation come through, maybe we get more mixed rain type events than just pure snow,” Rafferty added. That’s why, once all is said and done, the snow outlook this year is looking lower than the roughly 50 inches the Red River Valley sees on average… “The forecast that the [National] Weather Service has put out for our region is about 30 to 40 inches of snow for the upcoming winter season,” Rafferty said. ADVERTISEMENT But it’s not all bad news for winter lovers. “Yes, we can still get major snowstorms in an El Niño year. There are some very significant snow storms that have occurred in El Niño years. That's the thing, living in North Dakota, in the center of the continent, we expect winter. It's just how harsh of a winter,” Rafferty cautioned. The National Weather Service says, on average, our region experiences 4.5 major winter events per season. This year, they are forecasting between 3 and 7 of those types of events. Comments Share Share this article News Reporting News Reporting Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. The Trust Project What is this? Tags Tags WEATHER WEATHER WEDNESDAY By Robert Daley Growing up in southeastern Wisconsin, Robert’s love of all things weather started at the age of 5, fascinated by storms rolling in during summer and blizzards blowing through in winter. He graduated from the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee with his bachelor’s degree in Atmospheric Science in May 2023 and moved to the Fargo area to begin his career at WDAY a year later. Reach Robert at 701-241-5387 or [email protected]. Twitter Facebook Listen to this article Conversation ADVERTISEMENT What To Read Next Weather Weather gallery for November 11, 2026 1h ago · By Robert Daley Fargo Drivers encouraged to prepare tires for icy roads 2h ago · By Josh Mathisen Lifestyle What if this winter’s forecast holds true? 4d ago · By Don Kinzler ADVERTISEMENT Get Local Must Reads Prep Preps Plus: Region's athletes ink collegiate future on Signing Day 4h ago · By Andrew Haugland Moorhead Moorhead man accused in deadly shooting says he's ready for second trial 2h ago · By Matt Henson Minnesota Veteran’s lost wedding ring finds its way back to him in unusual manner 9h ago · By Dennis Doeden Women's Sports Bison women's basketball signs two North Dakotans, part of large 2027 signing class 9h ago · By Dom Izzo